Hey ya'll,

Welcome to the first edition of Simulations and Hallucinations! I've selected two stories to focus on.

1. White House Calls South African Envoy Racist, Banishes Him
2. Is Trump deploying troops to DR Congo?

White House Calls South African Envoy Racist, Banishes Him

(Technically, they accused him of race-baiting)

The Jist

• America's top diplomat, Marco Rubio, took to X on March 14 to announce the expulsion of South Africa's Ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool
• Using the informal channel, Rubio declared Rasool persona non grata, an unusual move and big GTFO in international diplomacy
• He also included a link to a Breitbart article claiming Rasool was race-baiting while discussing how minorities will soon outnumber White Americans
• Read more in this awesome AP article by Ellen Knickmeyer and Matthew Lee

Some context

Remember how the Trump regime claimed immigrants in Ohio were eating dogs and cats? Keep that story in mind.

A small but vocal minority of minority white South Africans have long resisted a government represented by the rest of the country's people. One of the narratives that right-wingers pick up in America is the false idea of an ongoing "white genocide" due to land reform.

An AFP Fact Check does the heavy lifting on this claim, so shout out to Cintia Nabi Cabral. In a country where voters believed Haitians with legal resident status were going around munching on domesticated animals, is it so far-fetched to believe they would also believe this?

The Reality

Land reform has constantly struggled in developing countries as they gained independence. Kenya, China, the USSR, Cambodia: name a country in the global south, and there's likely present or historical tension. Though these states are motivated to distribute resources more equitably, the criticism is that the larger, non-European inhabitants will misuse the land. Zimbabwe is the poster child for this argument.

Side note: Agriculture existed before Europe's era of conquest.

Land reform has been slow in South Africa. The issue has been the focus of intense scrutiny by lawmakers. The government's own website even goes into great detail about it. Some key concerns include market volatility and stable food production. The most significant part of land reform is giving (non-White) South Africans a slice of the pie. It's important to note here that about three-quarters of farmland is owned by Whites, even though they only make up 8% of the population (Source: Reuters).

Another complex bit about this is the White House's animosity against South Africa. When Trump sanctioned South Africa over a (conservative) land reform bill, he also said it was because of DEI and the country accusing Israel of genocide in the International Court of Justice. This is a political effort that unites Trump's base, from Evangelical Christians to voters fearful that migrants will eat their cats.

Is Trump deploying troops to DR Congo?

The Democratic Republic of the Congo will be a mainstay topic of S&H as it's a vital story on which I invite more readers to stay current. It's a conflict involving vital resources like cobalt, foreign-funded insurgents, and one of Africa's most populated countries.

The Jist

• The DR Congo is the second-largest country in Africa, and its diverse terrain and geology make it rich in resources
• The conflict in the eastern part of the country has led to nearly six million deaths since 1996
• Recent estimates state about 7.3 million people have been displaced, a majority of them women
• Up for grabs includes the largest cobalt deposit in the world, as well as copper, tin, gold, and diamonds

The Context

Where to begin? M23, or the March 23 Movement, is the most prominent paramilitary in the eastern part of the DR Congo. They mainly operate within North Kivu Province. We'll probably need some maps... My favorite! Here's a map of Africa (as an island, apparently):

Next is a map of North Kivu Province in relation to Uganda and Rwanda. Please note: Kivu Lake, for which the province gets its namesake, sits at the bottom (or south) of it.

You'll notice I highlighted Uganda and Rwanda. The United Nations Security Council has sanctioned M23 and claims Rwanda provides military support to the group. It's important to note that tensions in eastern DRC are drawn across familiar ethnic lines: the Tutsi and the Hutu. Readers may know these two groups from the Rwandan Genocide.

Rwanda is majority Hutu. M23 is a Tutsi-led insurgency. Hutus fled to neighboring regions, including North Kivu, after the 1994 genocide in fear of reprisals. It only got messier as the local Congolese Tutsis saw this as a threat. The DRC feared further instability from Rwanda and the growing number of Hutu and Tutsi-led paramilitaries.

(Read more: Council on Foreign Relations)

Complicated history aside, here's why this conflict entered a new stage:

• M23 has been on a blitz, capturing North Kiva's capital, Goma, and advancing to capture the "strategic mining hub" of Walikale on March 20
• The group withdrew from peace talks on March 17 in Angola after the EU slapped sanctions on Rwandan and Congolese nationals and blacklisted a gold refinery
• DRC President Felix Tshisekedi, fearing the growing insurgencies in the east, is pleading with the Trump administration to trade minerals for security

The Reality

Okay, so I have another map, this time of mining in the DR Congo. Please note: Some of these sites may still be inactive due to issues, including regional instability.

Look at the area around Lake Kivu and the number of gold mines. Tin is an often overlooked resource in this region. Bisie, a tin mine between Kisagani and Goma, shut down on March 13 due to M23's advancements. Tin prices jumped to an eight-month high after the announcement.

Conversely, look where the copper and cobalt mines are. These are further south in what's known as the Central African Copperbelt, where about three-quarters of the world's cobalt comes from. Cobalt is vital for battery production, so the narrative goes that if the world is going to combat climate change, this resource needs to be secured.

American media picks up this narrative and runs with it. Especially as Chinese mining companies make headwinds. In 2020, CMOC—formerly known as China Molybdenum Co—bought the largest cobalt mine in the world for $550 million. It's since invested $1.8 billion into the mine alongside Chinese battery behemoth CATL.

This is when we started seeing articles in the Wall Street Journal, such as "Why the U.S. Keeps Losing to China in the Battle Over Critical Minerals," and in the New York Times, such as "How the U.S. Lost Ground to China in the Contest for Clean Energy." But this narrative isn't satisfying as it continues to overlook a conflict that's been happening for decades. Why does it matter all of a sudden?

It'd be to point to the billionaire-in-chief as the cause for this. After all, Elon Musk's EV company needs all the cobalt and lithium to continue making cars so he can bribe politicians. This is where liberal fears of an omnipotent China and right-wing business interests collide.

On the one hand, Americans are trained to instinctively fear China. On the other, Tesla depends on sales in China, the largest EV market in the world. The automaker sold a record number of units in 2024 as global sales slumped. Plus, his domestic competition is cleaning up. BYD sales that same year jumped 41% to a whopping 1.76 million vehicles sold. That's compared to Telsa's 657,000.

If the DRC is interested in deploying American troops within its borders, it'll be important to watch how the White House attempts to justify this. The question on my mind is whether fears over China will top the list of concerns. If so, what would it mean for Elon Musk's business abroad? He's already asked Trump to use the bully pulpit to shill his wares. It could be a moment when hysteria over China beats out business concerns. If so, this will continue to drag down Musk's wealth.

I can write so much about all these topics that I should start a newsletter. Oh wait, that's what I'm doing. That's enough for now, though.

Let me know what you think about the topics we covered today. As this is a new project for me, it'd be great to know what you found most interesting. If you haven't done so, please subscribe and share it with your friends.

Thank you for reading! Look out for future editions, where we'll discuss China's tech policy and what it means for the industry.

-Tim